Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 22.379490 26.805213 31.654811 37.334789 43.775392 50.822298 59.085294
2025-09-28 14.799432 20.325801 27.006444 35.552199 46.060787 58.426515 73.933433
2025-10-05 11.692976 17.856477 25.879650 36.815093 51.036271 68.600302 91.598635
2025-10-12 9.482332 15.914710 24.844331 37.680531 55.150342 77.568344 107.919321
2025-10-19 7.812121 14.320472 23.902701 38.341756 58.779021 85.865100 123.563816
2025-10-26 6.611433 13.157969 23.328031 39.307720 62.708238 94.585043 139.990983
2025-11-02 5.349956 11.624955 21.936585 38.844241 64.457464 100.299550 152.508314
2025-11-09 4.470149 10.554447 21.086652 39.032900 67.046177 107.174041 166.758170
2025-11-16 3.674550 9.460783 20.023459 38.724074 68.781525 112.817052 179.407759
2025-11-23 2.922135 8.272259 18.610557 37.660218 69.209548 116.491352 189.304111
2025-11-30 2.562343 7.825393 18.458503 38.659346 72.876675 125.027110 206.417872
2025-12-07 2.080134 6.980015 17.429702 38.016132 73.816130 129.449523 217.614397
2025-12-14 1.783888 6.539095 17.196070 38.885227 77.487666 138.499941 236.473661
2025-12-21 1.314935 5.499050 15.575404 37.046860 76.509529 140.341337 244.690521
2025-12-28 1.151188 5.257450 15.619266 38.350707 80.972585 150.901484 266.468078
2026-01-04 0.986275 4.953487 15.469786 39.243956 84.738176 160.458150 286.966731
2026-01-11 0.835452 4.636717 15.234487 39.926326 88.138589 169.518647 306.934025
2026-01-18 0.721499 4.403668 15.161379 40.923033 92.142726 179.687605 328.905788
2026-01-25 0.568301 3.944016 14.431036 40.444825 93.364239 185.244136 343.691125
2026-02-01 0.465197 3.634480 14.034988 40.639484 95.837031 192.960464 362.111894
2026-02-08 0.366169 3.279279 13.441194 40.320833 97.281804 198.942456 377.853910
2026-02-15 0.269441 2.855779 12.554885 39.222992 97.112411 202.096175 389.024287
2026-02-22 0.231867 2.739015 12.572754 40.254043 101.215343 212.825045 412.923965